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S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions

Student research notebook (Rennes School of Business graduating project) that compares the probability distribution implied by SPXW and NDX option prices, using a fitted SVI smile, with the distribution quoted by Kalshi's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 range contracts for the same expiry. Uses Yahoo Finance option data and the Kalshi public API, with a saved snapshot in the repo. Findings are self-reported and based on a single snapshot.

Last updated · source link verified

What it does

Student research notebook (Rennes School of Business graduating project) that compares the probability distribution implied by SPXW and NDX option prices, using a fitted SVI smile, with the distribution quoted by Kalshi's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 range contracts for the same expiry. Uses Yahoo Finance option data and the Kalshi public API, with a saved snapshot in the repo. Findings are self-reported and based on a single snapshot. See the source for setup, usage and current status.

Tools: PythonJupyterSVI volatility fit+2

Difficulty: advanced

Platforms: Kalshi

FAQ

What is S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions?

Student research notebook (Rennes School of Business graduating project) that compares the probability distribution implied by SPXW and NDX option prices, using a fitted SVI smile, with the distribution quoted by Kalshi's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 range contracts for the same expiry. Uses Yahoo Finance option data and the Kalshi public API, with a saved snapshot in the repo. Findings are self-reported and based on a single snapshot. It is listed under Data & analytics in this directory.

Does S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions work with Kalshi or Polymarket?

According to its source, it works with Kalshi.

What tools or languages does S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions use?

The source lists: Python, Jupyter, SVI volatility fit, Kalshi public API, Yahoo Finance.

Who built S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions and where is the source?

It was published by alezcano02 (Alejandro Lezcano Osorio). The public source is at github.com/alezcano02/spx-options-vs-kalshi-distribution.

How hard is S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions to set up?

This directory rates it advanced (beginner, intermediate or advanced).

How many GitHub stars does S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions have?

It had 0 GitHub stars as of Oct 23, 2026.

Is S&P 500 options vs Kalshi contracts: comparing two risk-neutral distributions still maintained?

The repository was last updated on Oct 23, 2026, as checked on Oct 23, 2026. Check the source for current status.

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