KXFEDDECISION: Kalshi Fed meeting markets in numbers
In the public Becker Kalshi dataset, the KXFEDDECISION series (“Fed meeting”, Kalshi category Economics) had 130 markets in 26 events created Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025, with 278,539,309 contracts traded; 20.0% of 40 settled markets resolved YES.
Historical snapshot · source: Becker Kalshi dataset and Kalshi public API · page updated · these numbers as JSON
Markets on the outcome of each Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting, with one market per possible decision (for example a hold, a cut or a hike of a given size). Settlement uses Federal Reserve announcements.
Key numbers
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Markets | 130 |
| Events | 26 |
| Contracts traded | 278,539,309 |
| Markets never traded | 62 (47.7%) |
| Settled markets (yes or no) | 40 |
| Resolved YES | 8 (20.0% of settled) |
| Resolved NO | 32 (80.0% of settled) |
| First market created | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Last market created | Oct 2, 2025 |
Kalshi title: Fed meeting · frequency: custom · settlement sources listed by Kalshi: Federal Reserve.
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Markets by month created
| Month | Markets | Contracts traded | Never traded | Settled | Resolved YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 5 | 3,643,679 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Dec 2024 | 5 | 2,033,985 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Jan 2025 | 5 | 2,849,985 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Feb 2025 | 5 | 41,343,139 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Mar 2025 | 5 | 36,504,721 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| May 2025 | 5 | 48,053,671 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Jul 2025 | 5 | 91,819,656 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Aug 2025 | 10 | 52,266,770 | 0.0% | 5 | 1 |
| Sep 2025 | 45 | 23,241 | 55.6% | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 2025 | 40 | 462 | 92.5% | 0 | 0 |
Trades by month
From the dataset’s trades files, matched to this series by market ticker. Contracts = sum of trade count.
| Month | Trades | Contracts |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 118 | 1,553 |
| Nov 2024 | 6,672 | 1,846,836 |
| Dec 2024 | 4,563 | 2,110,952 |
| Jan 2025 | 2,121 | 1,781,938 |
| Feb 2025 | 1,732 | 1,176,917 |
| Mar 2025 | 3,778 | 2,329,551 |
| Apr 2025 | 66,208 | 25,617,894 |
| May 2025 | 50,142 | 33,530,372 |
| Jun 2025 | 30,400 | 25,873,563 |
| Jul 2025 | 47,748 | 40,680,814 |
| Aug 2025 | 33,074 | 24,100,579 |
| Sep 2025 | 71,870 | 71,700,156 |
| Oct 2025 | 27,351 | 35,765,484 |
| Nov 2025 | 24,993 | 13,293,393 |
Highest-volume events
| Event ticker | Markets | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|
| KXFEDDECISION-25SEP | 5 | 91,819,656 |
| KXFEDDECISION-25JUL | 5 | 48,053,671 |
| KXFEDDECISION-25MAY | 5 | 41,343,139 |
| KXFEDDECISION-25OCT | 5 | 39,093,798 |
| KXFEDDECISION-25JUN | 5 | 36,504,721 |
Why YES shares are often low or near half: ladders and brackets list many mutually exclusive outcomes per event and only one resolves YES, while game markets come in pairs with one winner. The share reflects how markets are structured, not a forecast or a trading rule.
More: all Economics markets
Build with this data
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Odds to probability calculator · State of Kalshi · All Kalshi data pages · Kalshi bot guide
Method
- Series = the text before the first hyphen of
event_ticker(same rule as State of Kalshi). - Category = the label Kalshi's public API gives that series today (fetched Oct 17, 2026), applied to every market in the series, including older markets. Labels may differ from what Kalshi showed when a market was listed.
- Contracts = the sum of the
volumefield in the markets files. It counts contracts, not dollars. - Never traded = markets with
volumeof zero. Settled = markets whoseresultis yes or no. - Trades = rows in the trades files whose ticker belongs to this series, grouped by trade month.
- Counts only. No prices are used, and nothing here is a forecast, a trading rule or financial advice.
Source
Market data: Becker Kalshi dataset (Jon Becker, prediction-market-analysis), data dump downloaded Jul 30, 2026, covering markets created Jun 30, 2021 to Nov 23, 2025. Category labels: Kalshi public API (GET /trade-api/v2/series). Computed with DuckDB over all markets files. This is a historical snapshot, not live data. Dataset snapshot date: Oct 17, 2026.