Python study of resolved Polymarket yes/no markets that measures calibration, Brier skill and favorite-longshot bias at 1, 7 and 30 days before close, broken out by category, with an out-of-sample test of whether a recalibration fit could be traded. Includes reliability diagrams; all results are the author's own (self-reported).
Last updated · source link verified
Python study of resolved Polymarket yes/no markets that measures calibration, Brier skill and favorite-longshot bias at 1, 7 and 30 days before close, broken out by category, with an out-of-sample test of whether a recalibration fit could be traded. Includes reliability diagrams; all results are the author's own (self-reported). See the source for setup, usage and current status.
Tools: PythonPolymarket public APIstatistics (Brier score+1
Difficulty: intermediate
Platforms: Polymarket
Python study of resolved Polymarket yes/no markets that measures calibration, Brier skill and favorite-longshot bias at 1, 7 and 30 days before close, broken out by category, with an out-of-sample test of whether a recalibration fit could be traded. Includes reliability diagrams; all results are the author's own (self-reported). It is listed under Data & analytics in this directory.
According to its source, it works with Polymarket.
The source lists: Python, Polymarket public API, statistics (Brier score, logistic recalibration).
It was published by carol-747. The public source is at github.com/carol-747/polymarket-calibration.
This directory rates it intermediate (beginner, intermediate or advanced).
It had 0 GitHub stars as of Oct 20, 2026.
The repository was last updated on Oct 20, 2026, as checked on Oct 23, 2026. Check the source for current status.
Compare all data & analytics tools → · How to build a Polymarket bot
More data: Prediction market datasets and free Kalshi JSON downloads
Framework for collecting and analyzing prediction-market data, including a large public Kalshi prediction market dataset.
Dataset stat Becker Kalshi dataset: 7.68M markets; 23.9% of settled markets resolved YES. Method on detail page.
Scripts to collect Polymarket market and trade data for analysis.
Student research notebook (Rennes School of Business graduating project) that compares the probability distribution implied by SPXW and NDX option prices, using a fitted SVI smile, with the distribution quoted by Kalshi's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 range contracts for the same expiry. Uses Yahoo Finance option data and the Kalshi public API, with a saved snapshot in the repo. Findings are self-reported and based on a single snapshot.
New bots weekly. One email, no spam.
Form not loading? Subscribe on beehiiv. Handled by beehiiv; see privacy. Unsubscribe any time.