Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study
Minute-level research pipeline testing whether Polymarket geopolitical and military contracts lead oil futures, defense equities, Treasuries, VIX and gold ETFs, with control markets, closed-hours and reopen-gap designs and a draft paper. Results are self-reported by the author and not independently verified.
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What it does
Minute-level research pipeline testing whether Polymarket geopolitical and military contracts lead oil futures, defense equities, Treasuries, VIX and gold ETFs, with control markets, closed-hours and reopen-gap designs and a draft paper. Results are self-reported by the author and not independently verified. See the source for setup, usage and current status.
What is Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study?
Minute-level research pipeline testing whether Polymarket geopolitical and military contracts lead oil futures, defense equities, Treasuries, VIX and gold ETFs, with control markets, closed-hours and reopen-gap designs and a draft paper. Results are self-reported by the author and not independently verified. It is listed under Data & analytics in this directory.
Does Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study work with Kalshi or Polymarket?
According to its source, it works with Polymarket.
What tools or languages does Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study use?
The source lists: Python, Polymarket data, minute ETF bars.
Who built Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study and where is the source?
It was published by aicgoraya. The public source is at github.com/aicgoraya/pm-leadlag.
How hard is Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study to set up?
This directory rates it advanced (beginner, intermediate or advanced).
How many GitHub stars does Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study have?
It had 0 GitHub stars as of Oct 21, 2026.
Is Polymarket vs oil, VIX and defense stocks: geopolitical lead-lag study still maintained?
The repository was last updated on Oct 20, 2026, as checked on Oct 23, 2026. Check the source for current status.
Student research notebook (Rennes School of Business graduating project) that compares the probability distribution implied by SPXW and NDX option prices, using a fitted SVI smile, with the distribution quoted by Kalshi's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 range contracts for the same expiry. Uses Yahoo Finance option data and the Kalshi public API, with a saved snapshot in the repo. Findings are self-reported and based on a single snapshot.