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Data & analyticsPolymarket

Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper)

Dataset and reproducibility code for a submitted research paper on forecasting Polymarket contract prices using related contracts in the same event. The public release separates a 303-event test set from the historical training pool, checks the archive checksum before unpacking, and replays the paper's non-LLM model metrics against archived reference results. It does not call any language-model API. Paper is under review; findings are the authors' own.

Last updated · source link verified

What it does

Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) is an advanced-level data & analytics project for Polymarket, published by GR33N-WCL and built with Python, GitHub release dataset and unittest. Its source dates from Oct 23, 2026 and was last updated Oct 23, 2026. Data and analytics projects collect, store and visualize prediction-market data: historical prices, order books, trades and resolutions.

Dataset and reproducibility code for a submitted research paper on forecasting Polymarket contract prices using related contracts in the same event. The public release separates a 303-event test set from the historical training pool, checks the archive checksum before unpacking, and replays the paper's non-LLM model metrics against archived reference results. It does not call any language-model API. Paper is under review; findings are the authors' own. See the source for setup, usage and current status.

Tools: PythonGitHub release datasetunittest

Difficulty: advanced

Platforms: Polymarket

FAQ

What is Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper)?

Dataset and reproducibility code for a submitted research paper on forecasting Polymarket contract prices using related contracts in the same event. The public release separates a 303-event test set from the historical training pool, checks the archive checksum before unpacking, and replays the paper's non-LLM model metrics against archived reference results. It does not call any language-model API. Paper is under review; findings are the authors' own. It is listed under Data & analytics in this directory.

Does Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) work with Kalshi or Polymarket?

According to its source, it works with Polymarket.

What tools or languages does Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) use?

The source lists: Python, GitHub release dataset, unittest.

Who built Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) and where is the source?

It was published by GR33N-WCL. The public source is at github.com/GR33N-WCL/polymarket-forecasting.

How hard is Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) to set up?

This directory rates it advanced (beginner, intermediate or advanced).

How many GitHub stars does Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) have?

It had 0 GitHub stars as of Oct 24, 2026.

Is Polymarket relational forecasting dataset and replay code (research paper) still maintained?

The repository was last updated on Oct 23, 2026, as checked on Oct 24, 2026. Check the source for current status.

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Two Crowds: Polymarket odds vs options-implied probabilities

Open-source app that compares Polymarket's price on daily stock questions (close above a level, up or down) with the probability implied by the options market, computed from implied volatility, and scores both with Brier scores on resolved markets. Includes a hosted site and an MCP server endpoint. Options data comes from the Unusual Whales API. Results and any trading returns are self-reported and not verified here.

PythonPolymarket public APIUnusual Whales API+2
codebyjaini · Added Oct 24, 2026 · Checked Oct 24, 2026 · ★ 0Source ↗ (opens Two Crowds: Polymarket odds vs options-implied probabilities source)

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