Kalshi YES and NO outcomes by category
In the public Becker Kalshi dataset, 23.9% of 7,314,386 settled Kalshi markets resolved YES; by category the YES share ranges from 8.0% (Commodities) to 50.0% (Financials), mostly because of how many outcomes each event lists.
Historical snapshot · source: Becker Kalshi dataset and Kalshi public API · page updated · these numbers as JSON
Settled markets by outcome and category
| Category | Settled | Resolved YES | Resolved NO | YES share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | 1,641,217 | 820,814 | 820,403 | 50.0% |
| Health | 578 | 285 | 293 | 49.3% |
| Economics | 7,450 | 3,669 | 3,781 | 49.2% |
| Transportation | 1,573 | 760 | 813 | 48.3% |
| Companies | 307 | 141 | 166 | 45.9% |
| Science and Technology | 469 | 171 | 298 | 36.5% |
| Sports | 97,479 | 35,103 | 62,376 | 36.0% |
| World | 325 | 101 | 224 | 31.1% |
| Mentions | 17,509 | 5,423 | 12,086 | 31.0% |
| Crypto | 1,852,082 | 486,634 | 1,365,448 | 26.3% |
| Politics | 6,570 | 1,534 | 5,036 | 23.3% |
| Elections | 2,163 | 487 | 1,676 | 22.5% |
| Climate and Weather | 48,354 | 7,361 | 40,993 | 15.2% |
| Entertainment | 51,294 | 5,861 | 45,433 | 11.4% |
| Exotics | 3,575,638 | 375,134 | 3,200,504 | 10.5% |
| Commodities | 887 | 71 | 816 | 8.0% |
Why YES shares are often low or near half: ladders and brackets list many mutually exclusive outcomes per event and only one resolves YES, while game markets come in pairs with one winner. The share reflects how markets are structured, not a forecast or a trading rule.
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By year created, all categories
| Year | Settled | Resolved YES | YES share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,382 | 678 | 49.1% |
| 2022 | 14,436 | 3,252 | 22.5% |
| 2023 | 34,060 | 7,873 | 23.1% |
| 2024 | 467,140 | 199,691 | 42.7% |
| 2025 | 6,797,368 | 1,534,694 | 22.6% |
Build with this data
- Prediction market analysis framework and dataset
- Kalshi new-market scanner with Telegram alerts
- Kalshi MCP server
Odds to probability calculator · State of Kalshi · All Kalshi data pages · Kalshi bot guide
Method
- Series = the text before the first hyphen of
event_ticker(same rule as State of Kalshi). - Category = the label Kalshi's public API gives that series today (fetched Oct 17, 2026), applied to every market in the series, including older markets. Labels may differ from what Kalshi showed when a market was listed.
- Contracts = the sum of the
volumefield in the markets files. It counts contracts, not dollars. - Never traded = markets with
volumeof zero. Settled = markets whoseresultis yes or no. - Outcome counts only. Prices are not used, so this page says nothing about whether markets were priced well.
- Counts only. No prices are used, and nothing here is a forecast, a trading rule or financial advice.
Source
Market data: Becker Kalshi dataset (Jon Becker, prediction-market-analysis), data dump downloaded Jul 30, 2026, covering markets created Jun 30, 2021 to Nov 23, 2025. Category labels: Kalshi public API (GET /trade-api/v2/series). Computed with DuckDB over all markets files. This is a historical snapshot, not live data. Dataset snapshot date: Oct 17, 2026.